Pump.Fun (PUMP)

$PUMP is a live case study in unlock-driven shilling. On July 14, 92.5B tokens unlocked: → 32.5B to investors → 50B to the team → 10B to the community and ecosystem Supply expands by 86.6B tokens this month. You would expect significant selling pressure. Instead, $PUMP is up 42% this month and 30% over the past week. Then the bullish posts started with Ansem disclosing a position. The mechanism is simple. Team and investors just got a fresh batch of tokens they can sell. They need buyers and KOLs create buyers. To be fair, the fundamentals give bulls something real to push. $PUMP generated $28M in revenue over the last 30 days, against a $786M market cap; that puts it near 2.3x annualized sales. Cheap compared with names like $HYPE. But the other side of the trade is just as clear. Weekly volume has been trending lower for months; Solana launchpad activity is cooling, and another 6.875B tokens unlock on August 12. That's roughly $14M in new supply at current prices.

Not really? Zoom out. It looks how I'd expect it to look. Also looks pretty similar to broader crypto spot volumes. Some people are just addicted to memecoin trading. They're just not getting attention on CT. (0 exposure) https://t.co/G95rq7rclZ

The reason why PumpFun $PUMP trades at a lower revenue multiple than Hyperliquid $HYPE is pretty straightforward: 1. Investors view perps (Hyperliquid) as having more durable revenue with larger future growth potential beyond the crypto sphere, than memecoin launchpads (PumpFun) which are solely retail gambling focused 2. PumpFun has notable team/investor token unlocks creating ongoing sell pressure and VC overhang for holders/buybacks to absorb, whereas Hyperliquid has unlocked/sold only a fraction of what they could have and has no VC overhang to deal with 3. PumpFun sold both tokens and equity to investors, creating a dual token vs equity conflict of interest misalignment problem with unclear boundaries of value accrual, whereas Hyperliquid has not sold equity and just has token 4. PumpFun has already reduced token value accrual from its buyback and burn mechanism from 100% to 50% of revenues, whereas Hyperliquid remains 99% of revenues, discretionary decision token holders had no say over 5. People

The trust issue with pump goes way deeper than the token or the launchpads revenue It’s countless promises that they never delivered on. In 2025 pump tried to do a series of community coin support that fell very flat. 1) MEXC Mondays they tried to list a new token on Mexc each week only for Mexc to delist the tokens shortly after 2) $10k community grants where pump selected 6 communities to give $10k grants for community initiatives, of which some never even got the grant that “won”. 3) Pump doesn’t highlight community tokens like they should in their app. They highlight new pairs becuase that’s where 90% of their fees come from. Leads to less trust from those communities and new traders who just get wrecked on new launches because that’s all they see. There were also bad decisions like mayhem mode and the ai bot trading that eventually got pulled. Pump going silent all of Q4 2025 also didn’t help peoples trust. There was a multi variable compounding effect of just let down after let down. While