Bitcoin Base (BTC)

Current chart indicator has fallen to 1.45

2014 the indicator moved from 1.45 to 1, taking 119 days
2018 the indicator moved from 1.45 to 1, taking 147 days
2022 the indicator moved from 1.45 to 1, taking 123 days

Note: When the indicator reaches 1, it is essentially a bear bottom

The gray line at the top of the chart represents #BTC price; the yellow line represents BTC short‑term holder average cost; the magenta line represents BTC long‑term holder average cost (excluding chips held >10 years)

The lower part of the chart shows the ratio of “BTC short‑term holder average cost” to “BTC long‑term holder average cost (excluding >10y chips version)” (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)

BTC short‑term holder average cost is defined as the average cost of investors or entities that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This metric reflects the cost basis of recent market entrants, who are usually more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to sell during market moves or declines. It is often viewed as a barometer of short‑term market sentiment and momentum: in a bull market, price typically stays above this cost average; in a bear market, price falling below this level can trigger additional selling pressure

BTC long‑term holder average cost is defined as the average cost of investors or entities that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This metric excludes chips held for over 10 years (lost or ultra‑long‑term dormant holdings, such as Satoshi’s coins), focusing on the more “active” long‑term holder cohort. These ultra‑long‑term chips have very low cost and rarely move, so removing them provides a more realistic LTH cost basis, reflecting the average holding price of long‑term investors who may actually trade during market cycles. This metric is often used as a reference for fundamental support levels: in a bear market, it may serve as a potential price floor

The ratio of the two (BTC short‑term holder average cost / BTC long‑term holder average cost) reflects the stage of the Bitcoin market cycle and participant behavior dynamics:
Ratio > 1: indicates short‑term holders’ average cost is higher than the adjusted long‑term holders’. This usually occurs in a bull market, where recent entrants bought at higher prices while long‑term holders have a lower cost basis (even after excluding ultra‑long‑term chips). This suggests optimistic sentiment, strong new inflows, but may also hint at speculative overheating or a potential pull‑back
Ratio < 1: indicates short‑term holders’ average cost is lower than the adjusted long‑term holders’. This is common in a bear market or at market bottom, where recent entrants bought at lower prices while long‑term holders have a higher cost basis (reflecting their position across cycles). This often signals capitulation, indicating weak hands are cleared and the market may turn toward recovery or the start of a bull run
Overall meaning: an upward trend in the ratio shows short‑term holder costs rising relative to long‑term holders, marking a “digital rally” phase or continuation of a bull market; a downward trend shows long‑term holder costs rising relative to short‑term holders, indicating a bear market or distribution phase. Excluding >10‑year chips makes LTH costs closer to active market participants, avoiding distortion of the ratio by low‑cost lost coins, thus capturing cycle turning points more accurately (such as the transition from bear to bull market). Historically,

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