Olympus v1 (OHM)

OHM drawdowns strengthen the thesis.

@OlympusDAO buybacks are currently running at 4.6% annually. If that pace holds, 30-40% of the supply could be bought back over the next decade.

Lower prices don't weaken the thesis, they accelerate it by bringing the premium target closer.

The loop works by borrowing against OHM at a 70% LTV, reaching roughly 3.4x exposure.

> 50% premium above liquid backing → 43% total return
> 80% premium → 120% total return
> 100% premium → 171% total return

These aren't APYs. However, reaching $23.99 OHM in 10 years would translate to roughly a 17% annualized return. That's insane considering 80-100% premiums have already occurred this year.

The main risk is taking a sharp drawdown early while running 3.4x exposure, which is why scaling into the loop gradually makes sense.

If the buyback rate persists, the destination is the same. The only difference is how long it takes to get there.

This is a vision for @OlympusDAO that I can get behind.

But for ethereum:0x64aa3364f17a4d01c6f1751fd97c2bd3d7e7f1d5 to be a real reserve currency it need multiple things among which :

- decouple the governance token from the currency token (aka emit a new only governance token)
- tighten the monetary policy to make $OHM more stable (instead of some up only asset)
- diversify its backing among multiple tokenized currencies (EUR, YEN, CHF)

If it become a real crypto native reserve currency it could play a central role in worldwide financial system.

Tempted to start accumulating OHM.

@OlympusDAO has changed a lot recently. Now the opportunity isn't just holding OHM. You can use it as collateral for Cooler Loans, borrowing stablecoins at a fixed rate with no liquidation risk.

You can loop the position for additional exposure, but that also increases risk.

Cleaner structure:

> Hold OHM as collateral
> Borrow stablecoins through a Cooler Loan at a 0.5%
> Deploy the capital into DeFi or loop
> Capture the spread

There's little value in backtesting this. Pre-2025 OHM was effectively a different protocol, so I'm building a manual framework for entries and exits.

For me, this price looks very interesting now.