MSTR (MSTR)

Strategy bomb countdown? Preferred stock interest leading to a financial crisis? Unfortunately, that’s wrong! At the beginning, through detailed calculations, I found that even with a 3% increase in interest expenses, Strategy can still support almost risk‑free for four years. Main text begins Seeing friend @Airdrop_Guard discuss the possibility of Strategy’s collapse, overall the post is very serious and the data statistics are quite thorough. Indeed, Strategy only has $1.1 billion on its balance sheet, but in fact Strategy’s preferred shares are not four, they are five; the friend omitted the Euro‑denominated preferred share $STRE. According to the friend, the five shares require $1.711 billion in interest payments, which with the current USD deposits can only cover about 235 days, i.e., roughly 7.7 months. This figure is completely correct. So why do I say the data is correct but the conclusion is wrong? The key is that the friend overlooked a very important point: the interest payments under Strategy mainly come from ATM, not from cash reserves or selling bitcoin:native. That is the crucial factor. Also, do you know how much ATM amount Strategy currently has? The answer is close to $51 billion! Including: $MSTR remaining ATM capacity $25.74 billion $STRC remaining ATM capacity $17.51 billion $STRD remaining ATM capacity $4 billion $STRK remaining ATM capacity $2.1 billion $STRF remaining ATM capacity $1.62 billion Now the interesting part: if we simply add up all the $51 billion of remaining ATM capacity, Strategy could sustain about 30.4 years. (This does not yet include the $1.1 billion cash on the balance sheet) Of course, the 30.4‑year figure has little reference value, because once preferred‑stock ATM is issued it adds dividend obligations. Common‑stock ATM has no fixed dividend, it is the cleanest financing. Preferred‑stock ATM essentially swaps new fixed‑income securities for cash, which raises future cash outflows. Therefore, if we also issue all the remaining preferred‑stock ATM and roughly increase the dividend yields, STRC is 14.5%, STRF 13%, STRD 13%, STRK 11%, STRE 13%. After issuing all remaining ATM for these five preferred shares, the new annual preferred dividends would be about $3.5 billion. Strategy’s current annual dividend and debt‑interest payment pressure would rise from $1.711 billion to about $2.18 billion. So the total annual payment would be around $5.68 billion. So slightly

@matthughes13 Hi Matt, what am I supposed to make out of this chart? https://t.co/NI1Qjj6YMK

$MSTR Weekly / Daily 👀 Deep retracement into the weekly support. Close above $162, and I will look to long. https://t.co/zsaP8wJb0s

Should we be worried about $MSTR and the possibility of a liquidation cascade? https://t.co/DpPATpzgx0

If you want to ride the jet, you’ve got to be prepared to pull the Gs. $MSTR https://t.co/lUhMMB49Ud

If you are selling $MSTR at 1.2x mNAV to buy $SPCX at 1750x mNAV, you are NGMI.

$MSTR final/updated count: This also makes way more sense now and again aligns perfectly with my overshooting B wave thesis in $BTC, $COIN, and $ETH. MSTR had a B wave along with the rest but it was not overshooting. https://t.co/qxMGp3lAE5