I have remained quiet as it seems the rest of the community has boiled in their own turmoil for months on end over at @SonicLabs $S.
After we failed to hold $0.25-$0.30 there was really little interest for me to continue investing/trading around this eco, with the writing on the wall RE some of the actors in this blockchain, its direction and failure to capture any form of what made it amazing to begin with - and this is mainly why I began to switch off and focus my trading/investing in other areas.
I was overzealous and overtrading FTM/S after having huge success in the prior years - sometimes it doesn't fall your way and you need to have the ability to move on!
At some point though, there may just be that positive catalyst that turns things around... Just something to turn the tides - what that is, I don't know, as all prior ones failed. Cope? Most likely. But you can never have enough Hopium. Stranger things have happened in this market.
FT? Instos? Reshuffle? You tell me. I got all the prior ones wrong it seems - as did most of us, but that's investing. This is why diversification is so important and to not marry your bags, or in most of your cases, singular bag.
But we are back to square 1 here.
A full retracement of this blockchain's entire history if viewing price and oscillators:
Price is fully back to early 2021 lows before our huge run up. This also obviously aligns with slightly under 2022 bear market lows.
RSI on the weekly fully retraced now to its lowest point since early 2020. Lower than any 2022 bear market RSI lows, that's how bad it has become.
MACD on the weekly only requires a bit more momentum in coming weeks and it flips green.
None of this at the end of the day can mean anything of course if we don't have the right catalysts and this can easily fade into the abyss, as it has been.
I understand usage, TVL, fee generation, dApps and the likes - a swift reminder that Fantom was in a similar situation late 2024, if not, far worse situation with far less going for it and was able to run up to $1.40 in December pre-upgrade. Whilst there isn't a similar catalyst on the horizon, and of course this doesn't automatically mean you just assume price can do the same - you never know just what's around the corner in the world of magical internet currencies.
For now, on LTFs, we have grabbed liquidity under our prior Nov 21st daily candle low in what is a hopeful Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), where we can hopefully attempt to engineer a reversal:
Of course, $S (and previously $FTM) no longer has that weird staying power it sometimes had in outperforming in weird pockets of the market. Hence, if Bitcoin fails to begin to rally and break it's medium time frame bearish market structure to begin producing Higher Highs and Higher Lows back towards $98k and beyond, then Sonic probably fails to fire, like most alts.
Unsure what can spur the serious demand and strength to see the higher targets - thus, it's hopeful. What I do know is, 2 (and maybe 3 depending on how you look at it) individuals that were involved in this blockchain that were a serious detriment are now gone.
Maybe @MitchellDemeter has something in store for the Sonic community? I believe the change in direction at the top is a positive stepping stone, particularly in the strategy department.
Whilst most want to lay the blame with Andre, I see little reason in ever doing so. He is one of the great pioneers of this industry - the tech is incredible, he produced what he was supposed to produce, it was elsewhere where the blockchain failed. Marketing, strategy, business development and more.
Whilst there is probably as much probability as price and the blockchain never recovering, the R:R (which is what you seek when investing/trading) at these levels is pretty hard to ignore if the wheels can begin to turn (NFA).
So maybe, just maybe, it's time to take a chance?
Or maybe I am joining the chorus of other degens that just have too much hopium for seeing this once great blockchain rise from the ashes.
I suspect not many out there missed my longwinded garbage TA posts, particularly on this ticker. Well, too bad if you made it to the end.
Maybe the next longwinded post will be the post-mortem.
Farewell friends, good luck out there!