ENA (ENA)

Here's a reality check on @ethena I've been covering this protocol since early days. If you hold ENA or use sUSDe, this is something you need to see👇 ➥ The Ethena we all bought: ➢ Delta-neutral synthetic dollar (short crypto perps against spot) ➢ Earn funding rates ➢ Pass yield to sUSDe holders ➢ Protocol takes a cut At the peak that model generated $151M in a single quarter and sUSDe yielded 27% where the protocol kept $10.18M. Take rate was 6.74% ➥ The Ethena that exists today: ➢ 93% of USDe backing was delta-neutral at the start of 2025. Now it's 11% ➢ Crypto funding rates compressed and the engine stopped ➢ sUSDe yield dropped to 3.20% The protocol pivoted to institutional lending and RWA allocations to keep any yield flowing at all changing the product. ➥ Here's the income statement that tells us everything: ‣ Q1 2026 had $65M gross revenue while the protocol earnings were $655K ‣ Q2 2026 is tracking $20.26M gross with $370K in earnings so far ‣ Annualized fees of $193M. What the protocol actually keeps is $3.99M (that's a 2% take rate) ‣ Monthly revenue of $327K with a mcap of $889M. We're holding a token at ~320x its actual earnings The fee switch won't fix this as the activation conditions were met when USDe supply was above $6B with peak revenue. Supply is $3.9B now and revenue has collapsed. Activating it today means taking yield away from sUSDe holders already earning less than Sky's sUSDS. Every basis point redirected to ENA stakers makes USDe less competitive against the one rival it can't afford to lose to. The catalyst everyone is waiting for is trapped in a paradox where activating it makes the underlying product worse. ➥ Here's what still works👇 1. Their $62.45M reserve fund held through every BIG crisis of Bybit hack, 10/10 depeg, rsETH exploit 2. Collateralization at 101.2% 3. USDe as a stablecoin product is sound 4. If you hold sUSDe purely for yield the product delivers what it promises. Whether 3.72% justifies the risk compared to simpler options is the question you need to answer for yourself. ➥ What could change everything? Ethena is expanding delta-neutral into commodities and equities through HIP-3 on Hyperliquid via HyENA. Gold funding rates on Binance averaged 24.6% in March 2026 while crypto sat near zero. If commodity delta-neutral works ⭢ the yield premium returns ⭢ sUSDe becomes competitive again ⭢ the take rate has room to grow The fee switch math that fails at 3.72% yield might work at 15-20%. HIP-3 OI grew from $70M to $1.43B in 6 months. HyENA already uses USDe as collateral. The infrastructure exists but Ethena has never executed delta-neutral on commodity/equity markets so this is a test for it. Also beyond HIP-3, the pipeline is aggressive: ‣ Converge chain with Securitize targeting institutional settlement ‣ iUSDe wrapping sUSDe for regulated capital backed by Franklin Templeton and Fidelity ‣ Stablecoin-as-a-Service whitelabeling USDe for other ecosystems These need to generate protocol revenue over a period of time to prove the models work and the post needs to be judged on what exists today, not what's planned. ➥ Here are the three numbers to watch before making any decision👇 1. sUSDe vs sUSDS. The moment sUSDe consistently beats Sky's yield again is when depositor demand returns (rn it's losing) 2. Take rate needs to be recovered. There is slight recovery but needs to sustain above 3-4% before protocol earnings matter at this valuation (Q3 2025: 6.74% | Q4 2025: 0.48% | Q1 2026: 1.01% | Q2 so far: 1.80%) 3. HyENA commodity volume. If gold and equity perps start generating real funding rate revenue for USDe backing, the thesis changes entirely (track it weekly) The protocol and neither the model is dead or broken but the version of Ethena that justified an $889M mcap doesn't exist right now. What exists is a fee passthrough machine earning $327K a month betting that commodity delta-neutral will restart the engine that crypto funding rates turned off. That bet might pay off. If you hold $ENA today, make sure you understand you're holding a transition, not a proven model. The proven model ended in Q3 2025. NOTE: NFA. Use this information for educational purposes only and not any financial decisions. Thankyou. h/t to @DefiLlama @EntropyAdvisors for the data

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