Ondo (ONDO)

JUST IN: Ondo Perps records $300 million in single day volume The product has also approached $70 million in open interest less than a month after launch https://t.co/RND9PooaYl

The irony of this cycle is that every standout business started as a crypto business with a single product and evolved into platforms with distribution and expanded monetization. → @Ondo moved from tokenized US T-bill products, expanded their tokenized product offerings via OUSG and USDY, then expanded to tokenized stocks and now perps. → @MorphoLabs moved from a rate-optimizer sitting on top of Aave and Compound, built Morpho Blue as isolated permissionless lending markets, powered Coinbase's BTC-backed loans on Base, and now launched Morpho Midnight for fixed-rate, fixed-term lending. → @SkyEcosystem moved from single-collateral DAI, expanded into multi-collateral USDS, then built out the Spark and Grove allocators, and sUSDS now sits at a $4.62B market cap as the largest yield-bearing stablecoin. → @ether_fi moved from ETH staking, expanded into Liquid vault yield, then added Cash for borrowing, spending, and payments, and Cash now drives the bulk of platform user growth.

Yeah, nice chart but you guys have to understand. The chart is just one tool and it’s not a prediction tool. It may offer you some visibility. Some probability some possibility it’s not a prediction model. You need to study much more than one chart to decide what’s going to happen and again you can have 20 different tools 20 different charts. They don’t predict anything they give you some possibilities some probabilities I know every one wants everything to be simple and fixed and look at one chart and this is what’s going to happen. That’s not the way markets work sorry.

4- $Ondo Update: Conclusion 8/1/26 Bottom Line: Ondo is stronger than price! ONDO was hit by a macro liquidity event, not some ONDO-specific collapse. And when I compare the internals with yesterday rather than simply staring at today's absolute readings, I think the data is surprisingly constructive. Spot flow improved from roughly -$608,000 to +$131,000 over 12 hours. Futures flow improved from -$3.94 million to -$2.36 million. Four-hour futures flow has already turned slightly positive. Open interest is being reduced across the major exchanges. Funding remains controlled. And the huge long-liquidation event is already fading. So yes, price is down. But underneath price, the pressure is easing, leverage is being removed, and spot flow has improved materially. Given what happened across global markets yesterday, I think ONDO’s internal data held up considerably better than the chart alone makes it look.

3- $ONDO Data Update — August 1, 2026 Open Interest Is Coming Down Across the major exchanges, open interest is generally lower: • Binance: -2.8% • OKX: -5.6% • Bybit: -1.5% • Gate: -8.7% • Bitget: slightly lower • Hyperliquid: roughly -13.9% That is exactly what I would expect after a liquidity event. I would rather see this than price falling while open interest explodes higher. The market is deleveraging, not aggressively building another enormous speculative position underneath the decline. Funding Remains Controlled Funding is still sitting around the neutral area. And again, the direction matters. We came from negative funding earlier in the week, recovered toward neutral, and despite yesterday’s macro shock we have not gone back into some deeply negative funding environment. So there is stress, but I do not see panic building inside the derivatives market. Positioning Has Reset The long/short ratios are interesting: • Binance accounts: 1.35 • OKX accounts: 3.08 • Binance top traders by accounts: 1.52 • Binance top traders by positions: 2.14 Binance retail positioning has come down substantially from the roughly 1.9–2.0 area we were seeing earlier. I like that. We had been talking about ONDO being long‑biased but not necessarily overcrowded. Yesterday’s flush cleaned some of that positioning out. The market took leverage off without destroying the larger recovery structure. Futures Flow Is Still Negative — But Improving Current futures net flow: • 1 hour: -$427,000 • 4 hours: +$18,000 • 8 hours: -$172,000 • 12 hours: -$2.36 million Now compare the important number. Yesterday, the 12‑hour futures reading was approximately -$3.94 million. Today it is -$2.36 million. Still negative? Yes. But far less negative. And the four‑hour reading has already moved slightly positive. That tells me futures pressure is beginning to ease after the macro shock rather than continuing to accelerate lower. Spot Is the Most Interesting Part Here is where the relative analysis becomes extremely important. Current spot net flow: • 1 hour: -$37,000 • 4 hours: -$102,000 • 8 hours: -$22,000 • 12 hours: +$131,000 Yesterday the 12‑hour spot reading was approximately -$608,000. Today it is +$131,000. That is not merely “less negative.” It has flipped positive. And it happened after a broad liquidity shock that knocked virtually everything lower. That is probably the most constructive part of today’s internal data. Price got hit, longs were liquidated, open interest came down — yet the broader spot‑flow reading improved from -$608,000 to +$131,000. That is exactly why we cannot just look at the red price candle and declare deterioration. What I’m Looking At Now Price is around $0.387, which puts us right back into the $0.385–$0.39 area we have been watching. What I want to see now is pretty straightforward: hold this area while the internal data continues repairing. Futures flow is already less negative. Four‑hour futures flow has turned slightly positive. Spot flow has moved from deeply negative yesterday to positive over 12 hours. Open interest is being cleaned out. Funding remains controlled. That is a much healthier internal picture than the price alone would suggest.

2- $ONDO UPDATE 8/1/26 • 7 days: +1.10% • 30 days: +19.34% • 90 days: +36.92% • 180 days: +40.88% • Year to date: +8.02% • One year: -57.90% So yes, ONDO got hit with everything else yesterday, but this remains a recovery structure inside a token that is still down almost 58% over one year. The Long Flush Was Real The liquidation data tells us exactly what happened: • 24-hour long liquidations: $335,750 • 24-hour short liquidations: $7,440 Over 12 hours: • Long liquidations: $168,150 • Short liquidations: $5,100 That is about as one-sided as it gets. Yesterday’s macro shock flushed longs. But look at the most recent four hours: • Long liquidations: $0 • Short liquidations: $4,850 The forced long selling has already cooled dramatically. That matters. The damage happened, leverage got removed, and the market is no longer showing the same liquidation pressure that created the initial move down. More to follow**

1- $ONDO Internal Data Update — August 1, 2026 You guys already know what happened yesterday with the yen carry trade. I’ve written two articles about it. That created a liquidity squeeze, and everything was down sharply across the board. So rather than looking at ONDO in a vacuum, I want to see what happened inside the market during that stress. ONDO is trading around $0.387, down roughly 2.7% over 24 hours. But once again, the absolute price move does not tell us enough. I’m more interested in whether the internal data deteriorated with price or whether some of it continued improving underneath the selloff. More to follow.