Lighter (LIT)

🎗️Extended: FDV to Points Conversion by this time, @extendedapp is leading on @starknet and in the top 10 perp dex by volume. – $208M TVL – $64.5M fee annualized – $145B cumulative volume – $378.68M OI farming XPoints now is kinda like farming $LIT last year. and we already see otc trading around $2–$3 per point, so this could be another 5-fig airdrop. let’s calculate it more specifically. they introduced emissions at 1.2M points / week starting Apr 2025, so ~40M points already emitted. projecting forward to Q2 TGE, call it ~80M total points to keep things simple. if 30% of supply goes to points, the only variable left is FDV. run the math. 1/ bear case: $300M FDV (highest odds on Polymarket) – 30% = $90M to points – $90M / 80M pts ≈ $1.1 per point 2/ base case: $1B FDV as a reasonable mid-tier perp – $300M / 80M pts ≈ $3.75 per point 3/ bull case: $1.8B FDV (around where $LIT trades) – $540M / 80M pts ≈ $6.75 per point which also means people doing OTC at $2–3/pt are implicitly valuing Extended

Since the Lighter announcement of gating the LLP via staked $LIT + APR rewards, the amount of $LIT staked has nearly doubled. This led me down the supply dynamics rabbit hole. As per their docs: "in the short term, Lighter is bootstrapping this yield using company funds and pre-TGE revenue". Which is clarity so far, on what they are doing with pre-tge revenue. On current circ: - 94m tokens are staked - 3m tokens are sitting in the team address. acquired via buybacks (unclear on their model yet - coming[?]) - Justin Sun, the largest individual holder, holds 13m tokens: Numerous people have said they did some backroom deal, so most likely wont sell [however: he sold $WLFI and ended up getting his wallet blacklisted - *be careful*) - This is also excluding just idle sitting spot supply, cant estimate that really but lets even low ball at 10% of current circ = 25m tokens? All of the above combined = 135m tokens. The circulating supply is 250m tokens, so over 50% of the currently, active, liquid trading supply

I was frustrated there wasn't much data aggregation for @Lighter_xyz and $LIT so I vibe coded this dashboard. Now you can do some Lighter sleuthing - trader leaderboards, wallet PnL, volume trends, market activity. Claude code + Lighter APIs = gud tek https://t.co/tAhfXTozQ1

Since the Lighter announcement of gating the LLP via staked $LIT + APR rewards, the amount of $LIT staked has nearly doubled. This led me down the supply dynamics rabbit hole. As per their docs: "in the short term, Lighter is bootstrapping this yield using company funds and pre-TGE revenue". Which is clarity so far, on what they are doing with pre-tge revenue. On current circ: - 94m tokens are staked - 3m tokens are sitting in the team address. acquired via buybacks (unclear on their model yet - coming[?]) - Justin Sun, the largest individual holder, holds 13m tokens: Numerous people have said they did some backroom deal, so most likely wont sell [however: he sold $WLFI and ended up getting his wallet blacklisted - *be careful*) - This is also excluding just idle sitting spot supply, cant estimate that really but lets even low ball at 10% of current circ = 25m tokens? All of the above combined = 135m tokens. The circulating supply is 250m tokens, so over 50% of the currently, active, liquid trading supply