This is my current observation of #Venice Token $VVV, starting with the four-hour timeframe.
On May 28th, VVV broke its ascending momentum structure to the downside from what appeared to be a bearish rising wedge formation. Following that breakdown, price managed a reclaim and proceeded to put in what looked like a five-wave impulsive move to the upside. However, despite completing that advance, price only marginally exceeded the prior high before running into significant resistance and reversing lower.
What makes this development particularly interesting is that the breakdown of the four-hour trendline coincided with a break of the weekly RSI trend regression line. When multiple timeframes begin signaling weakness simultaneously, it increases the probability that a larger trend shift may be developing beneath the surface.
Since putting in the local high, price has now broken market structure to the downside. We have successfully established a lower low, which is the first requirement for a potential trend reversal. However, the bearish structure is not yet fully confirmed.
At this point, we have one lower low in place, but we have not established a confirmed lower high. More importantly, we do not yet have a secondary lower low following that potential lower high. Until those pieces are formed, the market remains in a transition phase rather than a confirmed downtrend.
For now, the key area to watch is the next rally attempt. If price fails to reclaim the highs and instead forms a lower high before breaking down again, that would provide much stronger evidence that a larger bearish trend is beginning to emerge. Until then, caution is warranted, as the current structure suggests weakness but has not yet completed the sequence necessary to fully confirm a trend reversal.
I am now able to connect both of the major highs along with the pivot low, allowing me to construct a channel structure. After applying the midpoint of that channel, it's become clear that price is currently respecting it as a key area of interest.
At the moment, this doesn't necessarily provide a directional signal on its own, but it does suggest that price could eventually retrace much deeper within the channel. If the structure continues to play out, there is a possibility that price action works its way all the way back down toward the lower boundary of the channel over time.
Another important observation is the second pivot low, which currently aligns closely with the channel midpoint. If that level breaks, it would establish a second lower low and provide confirmation of a Change of Character (ChoCH). That would significantly strengthen the bearish case and increase the probability that a larger corrective phase is underway.
The other scenario I'm attempting to evaluate is whether VVV is developing a larger Wave 4 correction from a macro perspective. If that interpretation is correct, then there could still be one final push higher to take out the current local high before the market experiences a more meaningful rollover. At this stage, I don't have enough confirmation to fully commit to that outlook, so it's something I'll continue monitoring as price action develops.
For now, my focus remains on the structure. If we do put in that second lower low and confirm the Change of Character, then I'll begin looking for a larger mean reversion move on the weekly timeframe.
Currently, that weekly mean reversion level sits around $9.68, which would become a logical area of interest should the bearish structure continue to develop and gain confirmation.
