NBIS (NBIS)

$NBIS should see some strong resistance at $195 today, which is at the 0.5 fib, the 50ema and the RSI is about to come into resistance at its moving average. https://t.co/lM1UMZ5uKl

$NBIS #NBIS The actual downside MACD cross was the short-term bottom last time around. https://t.co/090vOfzgVz

The fact that this post became the most successful one of my entire journey in terms of likes should make one think. To me, it confirms that $NBIS is currently the most crowded trade on X within my feed. Everyone seems to agree that neoclouds are the winners from Kimi. And that is usually the moment when it becomes interesting to look at the other side of the trade. Demand is not the problem for the neoclouds. It was already huge before Kimi, and you can argue that open models push it even higher, because every new deployment is a new compute customer. The real question marks are financing and execution, and those get bigger, not smaller. Neoclouds borrow against long term offtake contracts. Here it helps to be concrete about who is actually on the other side of those contracts. Nebius does not primarily sell to small startups, its anchor customers are Microsoft and Meta, backed by multi year deals worth tens of billions. That is a strength, because it makes the financing bankable, but it is also the hidde

As we hold through a brutal drawdown on Nebius, I have tried to dissect all of the main news that came out throughout the past month to cut through the noise and see if anything actually moved the $NBIS thesis. I laid out my thoughts in the article below, but if you want to understand the thesis (or at least the way I see it) then check out the original substack article (https://t.co/6S1xNa50Hb) I wrote on the company when the drawdown began.