Hyperliquid (HYPE)

TLDR of the article: $HYPE faced an exceptional level of adversity in 2025 and held up remarkably well. Since 10/10, Hyperliquid is once again gaining market share from CEXs. HIP-3 continues to grow steadily, and RWAs are coming onchain. The trend is clear: Hyperliquid’s TAM should expand as more asset classes come onchain. Portfolio margin is still not priced in and could quickly unlock higher trading volumes while materially improving Hyperliquid’s competitiveness versus CEXs. USDH supply is also growing steadily and represents a direct bet on HIP-3 markets. As these markets expand, USDH supply increases, strengthening ecosystem incentives and reinforcing $HYPE buybacks. Despite weak seasonality across the market, $HYPE still looks relatively cheap based on current metrics: $500-$600M in annualized revenue. On a forward P/E basis, it appears even more attractive in our view. We’re biased, as we’re actively building on top of HL with HRC, but we take pride in remaining as neutral and objective as possible. If you want to dive deeper, check out @HyperliquidR for more research on Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid.

In this update, I intentionally focused on Hyperliquid rather than spending time on competitors. The reason is simple: there is no real competition to Hyperliquid in the decentralized landscape today. Most of what’s out there is noise. Lighter was arguably the biggest perceived “threat”, but I’ve already shared my views on the unsustainability of their business model so far. The real competition isn’t other perp DEXs. It’s centralized platforms. The true competitors are Coinbase and Robinhood. That’s where the real market share opportunity lies. We should be aiming for 0DTE options and futures market share, not worrying about random perp DEXs that are only relevant because of airdrops. Hyperliquid.