bitmex posted interesting alpha in their q1 2026 derivatives report
basically tradfi and commodities perps have their oracles prices frozen over the weekend, creating an arbitrage opportunity
i backtested it in recent weeks, and the strategy looks solid
how it works: binance freezes the XAG spot index when commodity markets close friday 5pm EST
the perp keeps trading 24/7 and traders lean whichever way price was trending into the close
once the perp price starts deviating from the frozen orarcle price, the weekend funding amplifies the move
the peaks of these moves land at sunday 20:00 UTC, the last 4-hour window before the underlying futures market reopens
from recent data on XAG: weekday funding across april sits around +7.8% APR
but yesterday (sunday) at 20:00 UTC, weekend funding hit over 500% APR annualized
the trade is: short the perp into the friday close, hedge with a long ETF or spot position that locks at the same time, and unwind both legs before the reference price unfreezes monday morning
basically you're farming the dislocation while staying delta-neutral on the underlying
but .. there is a catch: direction
silver crashed 15% in early april and the same mechanism flipped weekend funding to -91%
so when price is trending down into the friday close, this setup runs in reverse and shorts pay longs
making the right direction call is important otherwise you eat the funding carry instead of collecting it
also, this strategy isn't unique to silver - XAU and other tradfi/commodity perps runs on the same parameters
might give this a shot on the coming weekend
