Premarket, everything nuking.
Good to know I'm holding below NAV with no leverage.
Time on my side.
Few updates on $SATS
🔸Ticker changing to $echo on 24th.
🔸Feels like rebranding into the first profitable quarter moving forward. Highest expense was debt payment.
🔸Most tax efficient way to deploy incoming profits will be buybacks to NAV.
🔸 I think $20 billion should come in this week.
🔸Lots of inaccurate NAV calculation out-there. All assuming management a monkey and don't know how to be more tax efficient.
🔸 Entire space sector went down, $sats down the least. Good to see that. Recovery will be glorious
🔸Most people forget CEO + Founder owns 50.5% of the stock. Find for me another CEO that have so much skin in the game.
The space narrative will be here to stay. Unlimited TAM. Good example. Project starfall. Demo in 2 days.
If you are uncomfortable, means you are over position sized or your conviction not there.
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My theory of $sats price suppression and high short interest + how it will all end.
Convertible arbitrage is probably a major driver of SATS’s elevated short interest
$sats took on a lot of debt. Buyers of the converts sitting on a good 3X, want to lock in gains.
If you loan $sats $1000. You are up 3X. You are now given the option to lock in gains in the latest 10Q
WHAT DO YOU DO?
Short the ownership equal to the value of your own shares to lock in the gains aka convertible arbitrage.
Dateline: June 30
Math Maxing (from latest 10-Q and filings)
🔸Principal amount outstanding: ≈ $1.9426 billion ( Market Value now $6 Billion )
🔸Conversion rate: 29.73507 shares per $1,000 principal
🔸Potential shares if fully converted: ≈ 57.76 million shares
🔸Shares outstanding (as of March 31, 2026): ≈ 289.81 million
🔸Current short interest (as of May 29, 2026): 41.07 million shares
Short % of float: ≈ 30-32%
What does this all mean?
By June 30, Heavy conversion (many arbs convert)
30–50+ million shares bought to cover
Again, this is the kind of DD I’m doing. It makes hodling a hell lot easier.
There will be a time to cut. I’ll know when it comes.
Looking at my timeline. Made the perfect exit at top and perfect entry at bottom to the hour candle.
Was bullish $spcx
Everything was right. But the wrong vehicle again. Reminded me of $sbet
Giving $sats a little more time. If i cut, will let you know. All moves made on challenge port will be shared.
Fundamentally $sats great. Next earnings will be positive due less interest payments which was the problem + partnership with spacex to reduce capex is a great move.
I expect catalyst coming within days. Giving this trade a little more time.
Price Prediction
When is a good time to buy SATS? Should I buy or sell SATS now?
Beacon Prediction
Probabilistic Price Forecast (Next 24 Hours)This prediction is an experimental technical product and is provided for reference purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Unexpected real-world events may significantly impact market behavior. Traders should make decisions with caution.
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