Bitcoin (BTC)

Why MSTR Jan 2028 $300 calls are probably the best risk-adjusted leverage on Bitcoin you can buy today: The contract: $49.31 premium, 627 days to expiry, breakeven at MSTR $349.31, delta 0.54. What you're actually buying isn't just bet on MSTR. You're buying five compounding multipliers on a single underlying thesis. Does Bitcoin revert back to its long term trendline? If it does over the next two years, you make bank. If it doesn't, you need MSTR to raise the 1x mNAV floor fast enough with relentless Bitcoin buying. Amplified Bitcoin doesn't work when Bitcoin doesn't go up, shocker I know. Not financial advice. Obviously you'd wanna be a Bitcoin bull to consider this. Multiplier 1 - BTC: $80K to $273K is 3.4x $273k Bitcoin is not a bull market by historical standards. It is reversion back to the trendline of the asset's price by 2028. That's why I'm buying LEAPS. Plenty of time for this to occur. Multiplier 2 - CEBE drag compression: Strategy's $19.5B in USD-denominated senior claims shrinks from 244K BTC today to ~92K BTC at $273K. Drag goes from 30% to 12%. That's 18 points of pure CEBE accretion flowing to common. Multiplier 3 - Accumulation: 250K BTC/year of continued accretive buying lifts BPS roughly 14% over the period, even net of dilution. For people who think that I'm doing moonboy nonsense, Strategy bought over 53k Bitcoin last month. So this 250k BTC per year pace is LESS than HALF of what they're currently doing, with STRC in a huge growth phase. Multiplier 4 - mNAV reflation: Currently 1.28x. Institutional adoption lane re-rates this to 1.5x base case, 2x bull. Each 0.1x of mNAV expansion is +7% on the equity at constant BTC. Multiplier 5 - LEAPS gamma: The $300 strike sits at delta 0.54 with effective leverage of 2x on the underlying. Stack them. MSTR target at power law base: $966. The $300 call pays $666 of intrinsic on $49.31 of premium. 13.5x. Bitcoin's power law return: 3.4x. MSTR LEAPS return: 13.5x. That's 4x Bitcoin's return. In the bull case ($400K BTC, 1.8x mNAV): MSTR $1,788: 30x payoff. 7.5x Bitcoin's bull return. And remember, what if they actually just keep the 600k per year acquisition pace rather than the 250k I'm modeling here? Not financial advice. Just math.

INB4 "BUT ADAM WAT ABOUT ASST LEAPS BRUH" I already got 'em almost 3 months ago. Bid ask spreads are wider. I said "RISK-ADJUSTED" in the first sentence as well. This is my opinion. If you have a difference conception of your own personal risk profile, congratulations. Feel free to share your math rather than your feelings! Thanks! :)