Aave (AAVE)

Sky recently reduced its buybacks and staking rewards significantly

--> buybacks from 75% of profits to 7.5%
--> staking rewards from 12% APY to ~4%

even though they just had their best quarter in history

retail hates this, institutions love this

here's why this is bullish

Sky governance released multiple statements saying that they have decided to prioritize capital retention over capital distribution

meaning, they want to focus on using protocol profits to build a more robust protocol and a better product over distributing profits to investors

what is the product Sky is building?

Trust

and in financial services, trust is everything

look what happened 2 weeks ago with $AAVE. Billions of capital flowed out of AAVE because their customers lost trust

the same with Ethena in October

this happened with silicon valley bank in 2023, it happened with FTX in 2022 and has happened many many times with financial companies before it

the best financial products are the products that don't lose customer funds

MORPHO: The Lending Protocol That's Quietly Powering Billions in DeFi

Most people know Aave & Compound.

But there's a third protocol sitting right behind them one that coinbase uses to power its own crypto lending product, one backed by a16z, Coinbase Ventures, and Pantera Capital, and one that currently holds over $7 billion in TVL.

That protocol is @Morpho

Here's everything you need to know about how it works.

Morpho is a decentralized, non-custodial lending protocol. In simple terms it lets you lend your crypto to earn interest, or borrow crypto by putting up collateral.

But Morpho isn't just another lending protocol, it was built to fix a problem that every user of Aave or Compound silently deals with, the rate inefficiency problem.

◽The Problem Morpho was Built to Solve

When you deposit into a pool based lending protocol like Aave, here's what happens?

Lenders earn a supply rate (let's say 3%)

Borrowers pay a borrow rate (let's say 6%)

That 3% gap in between? That's the spread and the protoco…

MegaETH committed $10M to the Aave DAO over 5 years. How are they going to pay?

Aave earns from reserve factors: 10% on USDM and USDT0, 15% on WETH, 25% on USDe.

If revenue is below $2M a year, MegaETH pays the gap
If it’s above, the excess rolls forward

Let's look at the current numbers:

1. USDM market: $599.97M supplied (cap maxed). $180M borrowed at 1.34%. At 10% reserve factor, that’s about $241k/year.
2. USDe market: $200M supplied (cap maxed). $1M borrowed at 0.02% x 25% RF = $50/yr
3. WETH and USDT0 are still small

Total current earnings is around $241k/year. Gap to the $2M floor is about $1.76M.

So the heavy lifter is Megaavethena, which is now underperforming.

Loop works when loopers' income on $USDe (3.08% APY) exceeds $USDm borrow cost x LTV.

At optimal utilization (85%), borrow rate is around 4% APY, but the looping is already unprofitable by then, meaning the system must rely on non-loop borrowers to sustain demand.

At target $500M USDe supply cap (current $200M), USDM borrowable at 90%