ArAIstotle (FACY)

The newest feature on the @ArAIstotle | $FACY Truth Terminal is being able to check the likelihood in prediction markets.

It's one I've been waiting to test out.

Let's dive in.

Thread 👇🧵 https://t.co/254a3aKwcP

In the first part of the terminal, we see the option of the latest checks.

Many markets that have been checked lately focus on War, Iran, Epstein, BTC.

You can click on one for more details https://t.co/Ctfuv8TvPy

I chose to look at: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Market agrees at 23.5%
@ArAIstotle agrees at 23%

I like the graph as you can see how the odds change over time as politics change. https://t.co/VwKS64VKGB

Next we can get a breakdown of reasoning.

If you go to show more, you'll get a breakdown of military developments, diplomatic signals, and political developments.

It really gives you an in-depth reasoning to the market odds. https://t.co/YngtvvpI4y

Next we have the for and against arguments. The evidence that supports yes and no.

@ArAIstotle does the calculations and research, but you can also double check where the sources come from. https://t.co/s9hdmNSDGT

What I like is that the terminal goes into full depth.

You can look at the resolution risk index and resolution fragility index.

In simple terms, how fragile and risky is this market? Well this market looks pretty risky because of the ambiguity of politics and war... https://t.co/oaVriEeNWh

Lastly, we can scroll through the new sources if we want more information. https://t.co/VxSBPcHcK1

Overall, I think the prediction market feature is useful in the @ArAIstotle terminal.

You can even use the information to understand politics more or the direction of the market (e.g. BTC).